Известия ... US Focuses
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Izvestia
US Focuses
Donald Trump, speaking at his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, announced the beginning of a “golden age for America” – a new era that, according to him, should correct previous mistakes and bring the country to a higher level of development and international cooperation. Against this background, the pressing question is: should we expect a revision of policy towards the Central Asian countries – Russia’s closest neighbors – or in this case “the world will remain the same”?
The US approaches to a number of countries and foreign policy issues are largely doctrinal: concepts, declared geopolitical priorities, strategies. Central Asia is one of such regions; for the five, there is the so-called "United States Strategy for Central Asia for 2019-2025: Strengthening Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity" and, of course, the "Greater Central Asia" concept, which was put forward by Frederick Starr, former adviser to the US President on Russia and Eurasia, who served under Reagan and George Bush Sr. The validity period of the concept for Central Asia expires in 2025. Trump has already announced a revision of the US national security strategy, and the position of the new administration is definitely changing the entire conceptual basis of the foreign policy course.
If we look into what the concept offers, the lines of revision of approaches are already obvious, although something will definitely remain. First of all, the positioning of the region in relation to Afghanistan will remain. The United States perceives Central Asia together with its Afghan neighbors, as do most Western countries. This approach forms the main goals of the United States in the region. They lie in the area of ensuring regional security along the track "Central Asia - South Asia". This positioning is understandable: the countries of the region remain one of the main routes for Afghan drug cartels, there are tendencies towards radicalization - the "Islamist set", which the United States has been opposing since September 11.
The C5+1 format will definitely remain in the approaches to the region (Afghanistan does not participate in this format, that is, we are talking about the traditional countries of Central Asia + 1, in this case the USA), which will rather move from exclusively governmental meetings to business cooperation or B5+1. Last year, the B5+1 forum was held in Kazakhstan and focused on transport and logistics, e-commerce, green energy and agribusiness. This practical factor of cooperation will remain despite the transformation of approaches, because control over regional cooperation and the market situation are important for the USA beyond borders. The continuation of pragmatics will be the transformation of the C5+1 format and its presentation as a large-scale international platform for cooperation with the countries of Central Asia. The format can be broader, linked to new transport corridors, so keeping Afghanistan in the chain is necessary.
What will be revised is the rhetoric of democratic values, which are reflected in the US approaches both in the strategy and in public foreign policy documents to each of the five countries. For example, the American concept currently advocates “promoting a healthy civil society and independent media, strengthening democratic institutions and protecting human rights.” What exactly these democratic values are, and most importantly, how they can be interpreted, is presented rather vaguely. However, as in any “marketplace of ideas,” there are trendsetters — in the global case, these are Western countries, especially the United States. For Central Asia, these trends are expressed not simply in “healthy civil society,” but in the ideas of DEI (Diversity, equity, and inclusion). The “values industry,” which the American administration is currently revising, required significant cash injections, which were implemented by USAID and European funds. They provided grant support for Western-style initiatives, monitored the rights of the region's minorities, and ran educational "decolonial" events and media campaigns.
After Trump enshrined two genders (male and female) in US legislation, the popularization of the gender agenda will most likely only move to the idea of an accessible environment and providing equal opportunities. These tasks also reflect a very pragmatic approach that will allow American support to remain in the soft power market without a reactionary agenda for local society.
The second message that will change is related to the environmental theme. Trump announced the US withdrawal from the green course, which means that calls for compliance with the Paris Agreement will disappear from foreign policy. The proposed principles mainly concern “diversified, inclusive and climate-oriented economic growth”, in other words, the principles of a green economy.
This direction contains truly globally important things - support for economic growth, but taking into account environmental protection. And if in the first case the interpretation of seemingly "fluffy" democratic freedoms is important, then here it is necessary to take into account the criteria of environmental friendliness, non-observance of which leads to direct economic losses. For the countries of the region, this is related to natural resources. The US is interested in an open market of resources (nickel, chrome, etc.), without environmental restrictions.
Another aspect that will be revised is the positioning of the United States in Central Asia against the backdrop of Russia and China. The United States will continue to hinder Russian-Chinese cooperation, but will most likely loosen its grip on the battle for Central Asia in ideological terms. Increased attention to the region can only occur against the backdrop of increased conflict on the Russia-US and China-US track. Perhaps this is why there are proposals to organize a visit by Trump to the region, which will put everything in its place.
American innovations may have an ambiguous impact on cooperation between Russia and Central Asia: a region remote for the US may become a new interesting market, penetrated by transport and logistics highways, including bypassing Russia. The US interest increases competition, but it is definitely wrong to say that the American side will replace cooperation with Russia. Russia will retain its position as a leading partner for the countries of the region.
The results are that the concept will be new, the approach pragmatic, and the investments and aid funds, about $51 billion over 30 years – from 1994 to 2024, will fulfill their goals and objectives. However, we should not forget about the change in priorities in the United States, which will reach the countries of Central Asia as a wave. Today, the region is not in the focus of American foreign policy, but this does not mean that it will not be so tomorrow.
The author is a research fellow at the Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University.
The editorial position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
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